As is presumably understandable for those who know me, this is the most excited I’ve been about the MLB postseason in probably my entire life. That of course leaves a lot of room for disappointment, something that’s definitely not unfamiliar to me (as I’ve written before). Nonetheless, I’m sticking with my original pick of the Cubs making it an even century between World Series wins this year. But before the playoffs begin, I’d like to reflect upon my predictions briefly as they relate to the actual standings at season’s end before making some new predictions for the playoffs.

I was pretty close on the Senior Circuit, picking 3 of the 4 playoff teams correctly. I thought Joe Torre would give the Dodgers enough of a bump to make the playoffs in a weak division, and he did—although Manny Ramirez certainly helped as well. In the Central, I had it going down to the Cubs and Brew Crew, giving the nod to the latter (probably as an attempt to overcompensate for my inherent bias). I didn’t think it possible for the Mets to blow their division for the second year in a row (and for the Phillies to be the benefactors twice in a row, too), but sure enough, that’s where we’re at.

My Junior Circuit picks were much further off. I certainly wasn’t alone in thinking that Seattle would dominate the AL West, but that just means I have plenty of company in being as far off as possible. The Angels, instead, dominated the West and ended up with the best record in all of baseball, although it’s quite inflated due to the other three horrible teams in their division (look at the large discrepancy between actual W-L record and expected W-L record). My Central division choices were almost completely upside-down, but I must say I’m really happy for my friends who are White Sox fans that their team got in—not to mention how cool it is that this is the first time since 1906 that both Chicago teams will play in the postseason, giving us the chance for an El Train Series (although I don’t think that will happen). In the East, I gave too much credit to the arrival of a new skipper in the Bronx, discredited the Red Sox with thoughts of a World Series hangover, and wrote off the Rays along with everybody else.

So I ended up with only 3 of the 8 playoff teams picked correctly, which is no better than I did in 2007. Hopefully I can repeat my redemption from last year by calling the playoffs correctly again now that we know who the participants will be. (Allow me to preemptively apologize to my two regular readers who are named Mark and root for a team called the Sox…)

NL Playoffs

• NLDS: vs.
  I honestly think that the Cubs will continue to be the cream of the crop in the National League. Despite their hot bats, the Dodgers will be facing three consecutive ace pitchers, any of whom could be the #1 starter. I don’t think the Dodgers’ bats are hot enough to handle the Cubs’ rotation (not to mention their bullpen). Conversely, I think the Cubs can out-hit the best ERA in the NL. (Cubs in 3)
• NLDS: vs.
  I think the Phillies are looking to bounce back from last year’s disappointment (as are the Cubs), and the Brewers are happy enough to have broken their 26-year postseason drought. The Brewers will win at least one game, just because they get to put C.C. Sabathia on the mound at least once more this season, but I think that’ll be about it. (Phillies in 4)
• NLCS: vs.
  This will be a matchup of the two best records in the National League, and the games should reflect it. It’ll be a back-and-forth, hard-fought series, but with no curses or flukes or jinxes or any other bullshit involved, the Cubs will win their first pennant since 1945. (Cubs in 6)

AL Playoffs

• ALDS: vs.
  Will just making their first postseason in franchise history be enough to content Tampa Bay? I think so, but I don’t think the White Sox have enough talent to spoil it for them, although they’ll put up a good fight. (Rays in 5)
• ALDS: vs.
  All streaks come to an end, and it’s probably time for Boston’s postseason dominance of the Angels to dry up. I don’t think they’ll be able to overcome injuries to Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett enough to be able to stop the best record in the American League (although, as I mentioned, I believe the Angels’ record to be artificially inflated). Just as in 2005, the Sox will bow out early in their bid to repeat as champs. (Angels in 4)
• ALCS: vs.
  This may be the least-watched LCS ever, but it might be a pretty good one. I think the average game will be about 17-14, as there’s a lot of power in these two lineups (although there’s a lot of good pitching represented by these two teams, as well—particularly Tampa—so I could be wrong on that). Experience will win out, though, and the Rays can still consider the season a resounding success even without a title, so they’ll go quietly. (Angels in 5)

World Series
vs.

In a matchup of the two best records in baseball, we should get all you could hope for from a World Series: plenty of good pitching, good fielding, and lots of offensive power. I know it’s lame to pick your own team to win, but I really think that this is going to be their year, so I’m sticking with the Cubs in a hard-fought series. I’ll allow myself to get a bit romantic and say that they’ll be able to win it at Wrigley. (Cubs in 5)

There are some great opportunities for quality matchups this postseason, not to mention some really cool would-be World Series matchups: the aforementioned all-Chicago battle; the potential for the WS to be played at the two oldest ballparks in MLB (Wrigley and Fenway); the chance for a small-market team (Milwaukee or Tampa Bay) to crash the party. Hopefully it lives up to expectations.

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The past month has been really busy for me at work, so I’ve gotten quite behind with the movie reviews and everything else 1000 Monkeys-related. With the NFL season finally starting, though, I find myself unable to combat the desire to take the time to lay down some predictions for the upcoming year. Last year I fared pretty poorly, so I’ve only got room to improve this year. So here are my calls for each division (teams in bold make the playoffs). Note that unlike last year, I did not take the time to actually go through and pick every game, so the win/loss totals might not exactly add up in a way that’s consistent with the overall schedule.

North	South
Pittsburgh 12-4	Indianapolis 12-4
Cleveland 10-6	Jacksonville 11-5
Baltimore 7-9	Tennessee 7-9
Cincinnati 4-12	Houston 5-11
West	East
San Diego 14-2	New England 13-3
Denver 10-6	Miami 7-9
Oakland 9-7	Buffalo 7-9
Kansas City 2-14	New York 3-13
North	South
Minnesota 11-5	New Orleans 12-4
Detroit 10-6	Carolina 7-9
Chicago 6-10	Tampa Bay 6-10
Green Bay 4-12	Atlanta 1-15
West	East
Seattle 10-6	Philadelphia 13-3
San Francisco 9-7	Dallas 11-5
Arizona 9-7	New York 9-7
Saint Louis 8-8	Washington 2-14

And here are my predictions for the playoffs (winners in bold):

Indianapolis Cleveland
	San Diego Indianapolis
		San Diego Pittsburgh
	New England Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Jacksonville
Wild Card	Divisional Playoffs	Conference Championships		San Diego New Orleans
Minnesota Detroit
	Philadelphia Minnesota
		Philadelphia New Orleans
	New Orleans Seattle
Seattle Dallas

Comments (15)

With another baseball season upon us, it’s time for more predictions. Hopefully I’m a little closer this year than I was last year.

The fact that this year will mark the 100th anniversary of the last time the Cubs won a World Series makes it pretty hard for me to be unbiased, but I like their chances this year. I also like the idea of a rematch of that 1908 Series, and think there’s a decent chance it’ll happen. It should be a fun season.

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Just for the hell of it, here are my predictions for the major categories of the 80th Academy Awards, with brief comments on my selections. I think 2007 was an exceptionally strong year, particularly in its latter quarter, so it’s been a very exciting awards season, and I’m very much looking forward to the Oscars for the first time in several years.

Those are the only ones I really care about, so I’ll leave it with that. Should be a good and interesting ceremony this year. Here’s to hoping that 2008 can match the high quality we saw in 2007.

Comments (3)

Along the lines of Benoc‘s Wisdom Watches and Markj’s Friday Ups and Downs (must be a Boston thing…), let’s take a quick look at some recent events in the world of sports.

• Football in Wisconsin

  Headed into this past weekend, Wisconsin had the longest active winning streak in college football, and Green Bay had the longest such streak in the NFL. On Saturday, the Illini ended the first of those, and on Sunday the Bears did their part with the latter. Wisconsin dropped from #5 to #19 in the AP poll (while Illinois made their season debut at #18), and Green Bay lost their first game of the season. The Bears just might have saved their season in the process; whereas a loss would’ve meant a 4-game deficit in the division, they are now only 2 games behind the Packers and looking to get back to .500 next weekend against the bottom-feeding Vikings.

• Quarterbacks’ Destinies Determined by the Media

  The careers of Tony Romo and Rex Grossman have quite a few similarties, save for one (I’ll get to what that is in a second). Both came into the league 5 years ago. Both sat out for most of their first 3 years (Grossman due to multiple injuries, Romo because he came from EIU and was bred to be a backup QB). Both got a chance to shine in their 4th year (Grossman started all 16 games and led his team to Super Bowl XLI, Romo came in in relief of an ineffective Drew Bledsoe in week 6). Both had horrendously poor performances on a Monday Night Football game, but were able to still sneak out with a win and maintain their unbeaten starts to the season despite committing 4 (Rex) or 5 (Tony) interceptions (Grossman and the Bears in week 6 of 2006, Romo and the Cowboys in week 5 of 2007).

  The difference, though, is that while the media vilified Grossman whenever he had a bad game, both last season and this season (to the point where the Bears finally benched him in favor of a washed-up never-was), they continue to ride the Tony Romo Love-Train no matter what he does. The same guy who let his team’s Super Bowl aspirations slip through his fingers a year ago is still a media darling this year, despite throwing 5 interceptions and fumbling once in a nationally-televised game against a terrible Bills team. And yet, you don’t hear any mentions of “Good Tony” or “Bad Tony.” Nobody calls for him to be benched, the fans don’t stupidly chant the name of a proven loser in the hopes that he’ll replace their young starter, and you never hear the media oversimplifying his performance down to “which Tony will show up tonight?”

  Drew Brees is another example of a guy the media has fallen in love with and thus won’t question his position as the starter in New Orleans, despite the fact that all he’s done so far this season is lead them to an 0-4 start while throwing 9 interceptions and only 1 touchdown.

  Unfortunately, Grossman doesn’t look like he’s going to be given another chance, at least not with this team, and at least not unless Griese gets hurt. So the source of my frustration is the fact that there is no answer to the question, “Who will be the Bears’ quarterback in 2008? 2009? 2010?” At least when they were sticking with Grossman, they were trying to develop a franchise guy. Now, though, they’re back to the turnstyle of old guys who were never any good in the first place.

• Years Without a Title

  The Cubs got swept in their NLDS against Arizona, a team that has only existed for 10 years and yet has already managed to win a World Series (though I don’t think for a second that they’re headed for a second). As opposed to the Cubs, who have completed their 99th year without a WS title, and will be headed into the 2008 season looking to avoid reaching the century mark. Hopefully Mark Cuban gets the chance to see what a fresh attitude can do, which just might include a fresh bat, too.

• Cubs fans

  I was fortunate enough to have the opportunity to attend Game 3 at Wrigley on Saturday, and while it was a disappointing game, I have to say that I was more disappointed in the fans that were there. Granted, their frustration was justified: the Cubs had a monstrous September, only to suddenly go cold in October, whereas the Diamondbacks went from being the worst-hitting team in the NL to a homerun-belting powerhouse. That still doesn’t justify, in my mind, booing your team at home, though, especially when they’re facing elimination. The stereotypically jovial bunch turned into a stadium full of jaded and bitter fans after Mark DeRosa grounded into a double play in the 5th inning with the bases loaded. Worse yet, they began filing out of the stadium after the 8th inning, while I and a few others around me sat there in bewilderment wondering, “Is this not playoff baseball? Have we given up on the mantra ‘anything can happen’?” Apparently they had, and the Cubs’ season ended quietly. We’ll see AC006299 on the sign next year.

• My Baseball Picks

  Out of the 8 teams that I predicted would make the postseason, I was only right on 3 of them (all in the AL: Angels winning the West, Red Sox winning the East, and the Yankees winning the Wild Card). Heading into the LCSes, I’ve got nobody I picked still in it. So my new prediction: Red Sox sweep the Rockies in 4.

Comments (1)

In order to come up with my predictions for the imminent football season, I’ve gone through the entire 2007 NFL schedule and picked every game. As I did with my baseball predictions, I’ll list what I came up with here so that it’s “on the record,” and we’ll revisit it at the end of the season to see how accurate I was. This also opens my picks up to criticism, which I’ll welcome as always. (Teams in bold make the playoffs.)

North	South
Cincinnati 13-3	Tennessee 11-5
Baltimore 10-6	Indianapolis 10-6
Cleveland 6-10	Jacksonville 7-9
Pittsburgh 5-11	Houston 5-11
West	East
San Diego 12-4	New England 12-4
Denver 10-6	New York 7-9
Kansas City 7-9	Miami 6-10
Oakland 4-12	Buffalo 6-10
North	South
Chicago 13-3	New Orleans 8-8
Detroit 8-8	Carolina 6-10
Green Bay 6-10	Tampa Bay 5-11
Minnesota 3-13	Atlanta 5-11
West	East
Seattle 10-6	Philadelphia 13-3
St. Louis 9-7	Dallas 11-5
Arizona 9-7	New York 9-7
San Francisco 8-8	Washington 2-14

And the Playoffs (winners in bold):

AFC Wild Card	AFC Divisional Playoffs	AFC Championship			NFC Championship	NFC Divisional Playoffs	NFC Wild Card
Tennessee Indianapolis							Seattle Dallas
	Indianapolis Cincinnati					Dallas Philadelphia
		Cincinnati San Diego	Chicago Cincinnati		Chicago Philadelphia
	San Diego New England					St. Louis Chicago
Denver San Diego							St. Louis New Orleans

Yes, I’m a homer who thinks the Bears will get back to the Super Bowl this year and actually win it. Here are some other brief and generalized thoughts I have about the upcoming season:

• I’m on the Vince Young and Tennessee bandwagon, and yes, I’m completely ignoring the Madden Curse.
• I think the Bears are still good enough to overcome the traditional (as of late) Super Bowl losers’ hangover, mostly because their division is still the weakest in football so at least getting to the playoffs is more or less a foregone conclusion.
• At the same time, I think the Colts blew their karmic load last year and will return to finding their annual disappointment in the playoffs.
• Best divisions: AFC North and West, NFC West and East
• Most dominant teams: Bengals and Eagles
• Worst teams: Raiders and Redskins
• Teams to watch out for: Titans, Ravens, Rams, Lions
• Trendy teams I’m not sold on: Colts, Dolphins, Broncos, Giants, Saints, Cardinals
• Fantasy leagues I’m in this year: 2. Team names? The Hiphoppopatomus in one, The Rhymenoceros in the other. I can’t lose.

Comments (5)

Mark (who comments here as “Tree”) asked me for my projections for this year’s season. I’m posting them here for all to see, and we’ll revisit in November to see how I did.

Comments (4)

I’ve managed to go an entire season without writing a single entry about football… Almost. Now that we are here, one day away from Super Bowl XLI in Miami, I have a few things to say. I haven’t remained silent during the Bears’ run this year because I’m afraid of “jinxing” them or any such nonsense like that; it’s more that I prefer to not get cocky while they’re in the middle of it–better to see where it ends up and then reflect when it’s all said and done.

As with every year, the past couple of weeks have been filled with a lot of talk about the upcoming game by people who are lucky enough to be employed to do so. While it’s understandable for people to have widely varying opinions, what never ceases to amaze me is just how short the collective memory of the media is. By means of several examples to support this claim, I will now present some predictions for this year’s big game.

The Colts have too many weapons on offense.

They’ve had the same offense for years. The only major difference this year is in replacing Edgerrin James with the tandem of Dominic Rhodes and rookie Joseph Addai, which has worked out quite well for them. Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark have been through the past several dominant regular seasons and subsequent disappointing post seasons together. I recognize and respect the effectiveness of the Colts’ high-powered offense–I’m just surprised that everybody seems to have forgotten this offense’s tendency to look very mediocre in the post season. It was only a few weeks ago, in fact, when they looked downright pathetic against the Ravens, a defense very similar to the Bears’.

I keep hearing predictions about the game’s final score that have the Colts in the 30s or even 40s. People get so wrapped up in talking about the Colts’ offense that they seem to completely forget about the Bears’ defense (more on this later). People also seem to forget that the Saints were the NFC’s leading offense, and yet they were very ineffective in their loss to the Bears in the NFC Championship game. My prediction: The Colts will not score more than 25 points.

Peyton Manning will shut up the people who say he can’t win the big game.

People like to oversimplify things and ascribe a single trait to describe players. For Manning, it’s the “can’t win the big game” taboo. What people seem to be forgetting, though, is that for Peyton Manning “the big game” is the AFC Championship game, particularly when it’s against the Patriots. He got over both hurdles this season already, and I really think he effectively blew his load with that comeback win against the Patriots two weeks ago. My prediction: Peyton Manning will not throw for over 300 yards, and will have at most 2 touchdown passes.

Rex Grossman is a terrible quarterback.

Back in October, everybody was ready to give Grossman the MVP. He had a few bad games–and a couple of absolutely horrible games–and all of a sudden it’s as if he’s the new Kurt Kittner. The truth of the matter is that for much of the season Grossman has done everything the Bears have needed him to do: he manages the offense, allowing the Bears to establish the run, and then takes some shots down field when they need a spark to get them going. When he plays well, which he’s done much more often than not, he doesn’t turn the ball over, either. In the playoffs, Grossman has thrown 2 TDs, only 1 interception, been sacked 3 times, and has a modest rating of 75.4. Compare this to Peyton Jesus Manning, who has also thrown for 2 TDs in this year’s playoffs, but has thrown 6 interceptions, been sacked 5 times, and has an even more modest 66.8 quarterback rating.

I’m not saying Grossman is the greatest quarterback. I’m also not suggesting that Peyton Manning is anything less than the best QB playing right now. But let’s not forget the reality of the matter: despite the media’s preference for portraying the Bears as a team that has won in spite of Rex, and Manning as the greatest thing to ever happen to football, both are extreme exaggerations. Grossman has played well for most of this season, including the playoffs, whereas Peyton Manning is a terrific regular season quarterback, but not a very good post season one, including this year. My prediction: Rex Grossman will not turn the ball over more than once, and will throw at least one touchdown pass.

The Bears’ defense is overrated. / These aren’t the 85 Bears.

There really isn’t any reason to compare this year’s team to the Bears team that won Super Bowl XX, and yet it keeps coming up. The truth of the matter is that while this year’s defense isn’t as dominating as that year’s was, they’ve been one of the league’s best defenses throughout the season. This year’s offense is actually more versatile and capable of moving the ball and scoring points better than the 85 Bears, making the comparison completely irrelevant.

The cliche this season is to talk about how inferior the NFC is compared to the AFC. This gets extended to discrediting the Bears for being champions of their conference, despite (as already mentioned) the fact that they beat the conference’s #1-rated offense quite handily just two weeks ago. It’s hard to believe that the defense that led the league in take-aways this year isn’t as good as they’re made out to be. And yet, people seem to forget these statistics, and forget the fact that the Bears are among the NFL’s top 5 defenses. The defense’s captain, Brian Urlacher, was named the second-most overrated player in the league earlier this season. He went on to play his way into his 6th Pro Bowl appearance, and has led the team to the Super Bowl–but at least the sportswriters had something controversial to talk about for a week or two. My prediction: The Bears will force at least 2 turnovers. Brian Urlacher will make 10 tackles.

The Bears have no offense.

This is an extension of the exaggeration of Rex Grossman’s deficiencies, due to 2 or 3 abysmal performances. The truth of the matter, though, is that the Bears’ offense, while not great, was very serviceable throughout the season, including in the playoffs. They were right in the middle of the NFL’s offensive rankings this year. As an offense whose game plan starts and ends with the run, I think they match up quite well against the league’s worst rush defense. Granted, the Colts’ D has stepped it up in the playoffs, but I still think the Bears own the edge here. My prediction: The Bears will score at least 30 points.

If you add up all of what I’ve said here, it’s easy to see that I’m convinced the Bears not only have a shot to win this game, but that I actually believe they will do so. There’s one more thing that people seem to be forgetting, and that’s the oft-repeated sports adage that defense wins championships. So while the Colts’ offense and the Bears’ defense match up great against each other, I find it curious that everybody seems to be hopping on the bandwagon of the Colts. Then again, the Bears have been playing the “no respect” card for most of the season and the entire playoffs, and it’s served them well to this point. I’m comfortable with being the only person to correctly assess this year’s Super Bowl… and yes, I’ll eat my words if they end up being wrong. I wanted to put my thoughts and predictions down in writing, though. After the game we’ll revisit this and see how I did.

Final Score Prediction:
Colts: 24
Bears: 38

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