Posted by mike in Entertainment,Film,Predictions at 12:29 pm on February 24, 2008

Just for the hell of it, here are my predictions for the major categories of the 80th Academy Awards, with brief comments on my selections. I think 2007 was an exceptionally strong year, particularly in its latter quarter, so it’s been a very exciting awards season, and I’m very much looking forward to the Oscars for the first time in several years.

Category Prediction My Pick Comments
Best Picture No Country For Old Men No Country For Old Men I can see reasons for each of the other candidates to garner a lot of votes, but this is the Coens’ year, and deservedly so.
Director Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood) Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country For Old Men) Without intending to diminish the greatness of PTA’s achievement, I think the Coens’ was even greater. However, I think the voters will want to recognize PTA here, while giving the Coens the nod for Best Picture.
Actor Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood) Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood) Nobody can touch DD-L’s performance this year, even Academy favorite Clooney.
Actress Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose) Ellen Page (Juno) I think the backlash against indie darling Juno will be too great, with preference going to the art-house favorite instead–which, by all accounts, features a great performance by Cotillard (though this is one I’ve not seen).
Supporting Actor Javier Bardem (No Country For Old Men) Javier Bardem (No Country For Old Men) I don’t think this one is even close, although there are several good performances nominated (particularly Tom Wilkinson in Michael Clayton).
Supporting Actress Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton) Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone) Swinton’s performance seemed to be a critical favorite, but I really thought Amy Ryan stole the show in Gone Baby Gone.
Cinematography Roger Deakins (No Country For Old Men) Robert Elswitt (There Will Be Blood) I think this will be a tight race, and both front-runners are deserving, but it’s time for Roger Deakins to get the recognition he so deserves.
Original Screenplay Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton) Diablo Cody (Juno) Michael Clayton seems to be a voter’s favorite, and I think the success of Juno will detract from its indie cred and hurt Cody’s chances of winning the Oscar I feel she deserves.
Adapted Screenplay Christopher Hampton (Atonement) Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country For Old Men) I thought the Coens’ adaptation was as good as I’ve ever seen, although I think PTA deserves consideration here as well. The Academy tends to like movies like Atonement in this category more than either of them, though.
Editing Roderick Jaynes (No Country For Old Men) Roderick Jaynes (No Country For Old Men) As a continuation of the theme of recognizing the Coen brothers–not only for their remarkable film this year but also for their lifetimes of consistently amazing work–it’s time for their editor pseudonym to win, too. Should be interesting to see how the “outing” of Roderick Jaynes is handled at the ceremony.

Those are the only ones I really care about, so I’ll leave it with that. Should be a good and interesting ceremony this year. Here’s to hoping that 2008 can match the high quality we saw in 2007.

Comments (3)

3 Responses to “Oscar Predictions”:

  • Pretty good picks, Mike. Better than your NFL picks. ;-) You missed on the actresses, though. Might want to work on that for next year.

  • My predictions on the actresses were correct; they just weren’t the women I would’ve selected were it up to me.

    The final tally:

    Predictions: 5 out of 10 correct
    My Picks: 7 out of 10 correct

    I take this to mean that I should have more faith in the Academy to grant the awards where they belong (which is to say, they should agree with me more, of course…).

    Unfortunately Roderick Jaynes didn’t win, but they did show a funny photo when announcing him as a nominee. I’m curious to find out who it was of.

    The only real disappointment I had with this year’s awards is that I thought PTA deserved more recognition. But only one film can win and nobody can say that the Coens weren’t deserving in both of the “major” categories (Best Picture and Directing). I’m pretty sure he’ll keep making nomination-worthy films for a long time, though, and this won’t be his last chance at it.

  • Ah, I see. I thought the prediction column were the odds on favorites.

    It’s a shame Hal Holbrook was up against such a tough group this year. He’s a great actor and like Peter O’Toole last year, it would have been nice to see him finally recognized. I think the Academy blew it last year by passing up O’Toole for what, the 8th time? I’ll admit I didn’t see either his movie or Whitaker’s, so I guess I can’t be a decent judge. But Whitaker will act another day, whereas O’Toole is not likely to be on that stage again.